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Layoffs & Facebook Gaming

Seconds and Cents Episode 38. I took last week off, I'm excited to be here today, we're only going to do headlines and thinking that maybe a shorter podcast is going to be a little bit better. So we're going to do just three headlines today, three things that are happening in the world that I think you all will find slightly interesting. So I want to start with layoffs. So it's been announced that Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Raytheon, Charles Schwab, are cutting thousands of white collar jobs is the way that it was being put when I read it. I think this is no surprise, I think this is going to keep coming. I think that we haven't even begun to scratch the surface of the layoffs that are going to happen here. I think that

people need to remember, though, that some of these layoffs are coming because revenues are down, profits are down. And then some of them are coming because the world is changing. And so these were layoffs that we're going to happen at some point, the problem is, is that they're all happening at once. Because the pandemic just kind of move the world forward an awful lot. And so I think that this is just coming for I think a lot of this is coming from remote work, I saw that, you know, Schwab was laying off a bunch of branch managers. First of all, I don't know how about how many of you really enjoy going, going into banks going into financial institutions to talk to people but I don't, if I can do it all over the internet, I'm going to do that in a heartbeat. One of my least favorite things to do is go and talk to banks. In person, I just feel like it's a stuffy experience, it's kind of a waste, it's an errand that I don't want to do, right. And so Schwab's laying off a bunch of branch managers, my guess, is that Schwab is just pivoting everything to online, or they already have I don't use them. So I don't know. And they really don't need a large percentage of their branch managers, they don't need a large percentage of the people that are working inside of the office right now that our customer facing. And I think that's a pull forward from this pandemic, it might be, it might be said that it's financially motivated now, but I just don't think that it is. I think that another thing that people need to think about here is as these companies start to lay off more and more people, is that one of the things I hear a lot of that fire, that hiring is really, really easy when you can work anywhere, right? So if I, as an employer, employer want to hire somebody, I can hire somebody from California just as easily as I can hire somebody from Ohio. And, in fact, my team is all over the country. Right? So I used to have a bunch of local talent here. And over time, a lot of my team has moved across the country, they started in Ohio, they've moved elsewhere. And it's no problem for me Our workflows impacted whatsoever. But if you think that hiring is easy, when when it's D localized, like it is right now, firing is really easy. It's a phone call, it's turning off somebodies access to their email accounts. Right? It's it's not that much. I've let people go before and it's a lot easier when you're letting somebody go virtually than when you're letting somebody go in person. When you really have to sit there in person, that's tough. And so I think that people haven't quite realized yet how it's going to be like how talent is going to start to turn, they haven't realized yet how automation is going to really just kind of drive the world, how the automation teams inside of businesses are going to be the ones that are going to be the most conflicted. The reason they're going to be conflicted is because they're going to be creating the largest impact on the bottom line for these businesses. At the same time, they're going to be the ones that are enabling businesses to let people go, I know that in my business we regularly automate processes for for clients. And when we automate processes we try to stick with, well, what are the processes that are going to free up your existing team, they're going to free up your team to do the things that are really creative, they're going to free up your abilities to be able to utilize your resources better, but you're not going to fire people, you're just going to utilize the people that you have a lot better, maybe you're not going to hire more people, but your team isn't going to contract. If anything, it's going to give you new capabilities that allow you to expand. I think that we are white hat in this situation, I think that a lot of these big companies that have a ton of overhead that have hired thousands of branch managers, for example, as they start to pivot online, they're going to be using a lot of automation to replace a lot of jobs really increase that bottom line. If you're investing in the stock market, I'd say look at the companies that are really heavily investing heavily in automation. Look at the companies that are buying AI companies right now. Or bought AI companies in the last six to 12 to 18 to 24 months. Those are going to be companies that are gonna have boosted bottom lines as a result of this pandemic. That said, I don't love the idea of, of letting people go. All that's to say I think this is a massive pull forward. I think that we're going to see a lot more jobs. Be Last, I feel kind of bad for the next administration to be honest, because I think that yes, there will be a stimulus package that is that is proposed, there might even be a stimulus package that's passed, come the holiday season come the end of the year, the beginning of 21. But really, I think that 2021 is going to be a bloodbath for a lot of white collar jobs, a lot of people that are doing repetitive jobs, and to be honest with you a lot of people that are sort of human computers. So if you at your job right now are thinking, you know, a lot of my job is repetitive. A lot of my jobs sort of makes me human computer, I'd watch out. Because I think that I think that the automation teams are coming, I don't think it's going to be good for you. I'm not saying this, because I'm an automation guy, I just think we're already starting to see it happen, especially in my world, I'm seeing it happen a lot. The word automation is being used every single day, by people who wouldn't have said it at all previously. So we're gonna see, I think this is one more thing about kind of job loss here. We're talking about large business job loss. I'm seeing a lot of small businesses too. It's not being publicized right now. But a lot of small businesses are running out of PPP money, they're really struggling, the business might still be open, but it's a shell of business. So that's pretty much all I have to say there. Secondly, Microsoft Teams grows, they had their quarterly results, they grew from 75 million daily active users to 100 and 15 million daily active users. And this is I think, huge. So Microsoft Teams is Microsoft's basically competitor to slack.

It's mostly used for chat and for communication. But it also is a competitor to zoom it has. It has video conferencing functionality. It has integrations into all your Microsoft apps, you can work on a Microsoft Word document or a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet or a PowerPoint presentation. Inside of teams. You can integrate other apps into teams, just like slack has add ons, teams has add ons. But I think what we're finding here with with Microsoft with teams is that Microsoft has done really something really smart and that they put teams at the center of the Microsoft Office Suite. So it used to be the big three apps, they've put teams right in the middle of it now. So now teams compete with zoom teams competes with slack teams, compete honestly, with the desktop, it competes with Microsoft Windows, you can do all sorts of different things inside of teams. And I think, I think that teams is going to be not necessarily a huge profit driver for Microsoft, although they are selling subscriptions to video conferencing, to compete with zoom, etc. through it, I think really teams is going to be where the future of the workplace is, I think it's going to totally reduce churn for Microsoft, that's going to reduce people switching from Microsoft to Google, from office to G Suite. And I think that they're going to be a lot of companies that utilize that utilize teams as a huge productivity boost is going to make a sizable impact on their bottom line. I think the difference here for Microsoft, and one of the things that makes us so different than slack is I think that everybody's considered Microsoft, especially office to be productivity software. And in this case, I think Microsoft is putting humans at the center of productivity here with teams, they're putting chat, they're putting phone calls, they're putting communication, video conferencing, they're putting virtual mini meeting rooms, as the kind of the basis for productivity. I think that they're removing the technology as the center of productivity. And I think that's why Microsoft is gonna end up beating slack. I think Microsoft is gonna absorb a lot of the market share from Slack, they're gonna absorb Dropbox, they're gonna absorb box, they're just, they're gonna absorb some of the market share, to be quite honest, from zoom. I think that

zooms been fantastic, they've handled, they've handled the pandemic really, really well. And I think that Microsoft Teams will over time start to start to beat out zoom inside of companies. So zoom will still be used as, first of all, it's being used as a verb. So it's going, it's not going to go away. But zoom will be used as a way to communicate with external individuals, external stakeholders of the company, because it's so easy to just log on and press go internally to the company, though, I think we're gonna see a lot of people using teams. I think zoom has some security concerns as well, where companies especially large companies will say, hey, if everybody is internal, we prefer to use teams, over zoom because of zoom security concerns, etc. If you're working with external stakeholders, feel free to use zoom, it's going to be a lot easier. I think it's going to be a sizable blow for zoom. If Microsoft figures out how to launch teams like you can launch zoom in Which is just with one quick one click inside of the browser. We're gonna see how that goes. But huge win for Microsoft. Lastly, Facebook launches a gaming platform. Everybody's launching a gaming platform, right? Apple has Apple arcade. There's Google stadia, there's Amazon, whatever. There's Microsoft's gaming platform with Xbox game pass. Everybody has gaming platform if you're in big tech, except for next. And I think this is going to be a huge difference for Facebook. I like the way that Facebook has gone about this, which is that the games are going to be free, they're investing in the games, the games are going to be free, and they're going to monetize using advertisements. I'm huge victory. I think this is going to be sort of a YouTube for gaming, to be honest, and I don't mean YouTube, like people are going to be streaming, although I am 100% sure people are going to be streaming and Facebook will be monetizing on the side. I think this is just gonna simply be huge for Facebook's advertising revenues. Gaming is certainly the future for a lot of people's entertainment. I think, Facebook right now only launching on Android, not iOS, because they can't figure out how to get onto iOS, because of some App Store policy is going to be no issue at all, I think that Facebook is either going to figure out how to sideload onto onto iOS using the browser, or they're going to figure out how to integrate it into the core app. And that's just going to be it for the end of the day, I think Facebook is going to make a ton of money off of this, I think this is going to be a really long tail for Facebook, too. And the reason why is because it eliminates the social component of Facebook to some degree. What I mean here is that in order for you to really get value out of Facebook, your friends have to be on Facebook. Right? That's the social component of the social network. I think that with Facebook gaming, it's not going to be necessary that your friends are on Facebook. So now you can, in theory, I'm not saying I love the idea, but you can in theory, sign your six year old six year old up for a Facebook account, and they can start gaming on Facebook immediately. So I think it's gonna be huge their revenues. I think that over the over the long haul Facebook gaming is going to be an Instagram like size component of that revenues. It's going to be massively monetized. I think it's going to be massively monetized by gaming companies, it's going to be monetized by gaming companies that have mobile apps that are going to monetize through in app purchases, Facebook is going to drastically lower the cost of conversion for an app download, I think the app down the app market is going to explode because of this more than it already has. Because Facebook's going to be able to sell an ad conversion ad for an app download. And I just think it's going to be fantastic for app developers for gaming companies and for Facebook. And for the end consumer. Overall huge victory. Who do I think is the big loser in this scenario, I don't really see a big loser in Facebook entering gaming. I think gaming is a massive market that's largely untapped. I think if anybody's going to lose, it's going to be something somebody like Apple arcade. But I don't necessarily think that Apple arcade and Facebook gaming are going to compete that much. I think the apple arcade is going to actually end up being free. For most people, it's going to reduce churn with the apple one subscription, where basically families are going to pay like 30 bucks a month, they're gonna get iCloud, they're gonna get Apple Music, they're gonna get Apple TV, they're gonna get Apple arcade, they're gonna get Apple fitness. And and so I think that Apple arcade is just going to reduce churn from the apple one subscriptions, I don't think it's necessarily going to compete that much with Facebook gaming. We'll see I think overall, Facebook gaming is drastically expanding the gaming market, it's creating a new market for free games monetize based off of advertisements, which I don't know I've ever been done before. And I think that for Facebook's bottom line as well, for the bottom line is a for a bunch of developers, it's going to really, really go well over the next 10 years. So if you're excited about gaming, if you're excited about all these people launching cloud gaming platforms, I'd be really excited about Facebook, too.


The above is an AI transcription of Evan’s Seconds and Cents podcast.

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